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Gus Iversen, Editor in Chief | March 10, 2025
A new study published in the Journal of Breast Imaging reports that breast cancer mortality rates have stopped declining for women over 74, a newly identified trend, while reconfirming that rates have remained flat for women under 40 since 2010.
Researchers Debra Monticciolo and R. Edward Hendrick analyzed data from the National Center for Health Statistics spanning 1990 to 2022. They found that overall breast cancer mortality in U.S. women declined by 43.5% over that period, with the rate of decrease slowing in recent years. From 2010 to 2022, mortality rates fell by 1.23% annually — the slowest recorded decline since 1990.
For women ages 20 to 39, mortality rates decreased by 2.79% per year from 1990 to 2010 but have since leveled off. The study found a similar pattern for women 75 and older: a steady decline of 1.26% per year from 1993 to 2013, followed by no further improvement.
The trend varies by race and ethnicity. Mortality rates for Asian, Hispanic, and Native American women have remained unchanged in recent years — since 2009 for Asian women, 2008 for Hispanic women, and 2005 for Native American women. In contrast, Black women have continued to see declining breast cancer death rates across all age groups.
The study suggests that the stagnation in mortality decline for the youngest and oldest women may be linked to increasing diagnoses of stage IV breast cancer in these groups. Metastatic breast cancer has a five-year survival rate of just 31%. The researchers point to current screening recommendations as a possible factor, noting that women under 40 generally do not undergo routine screening unless they are considered high-risk, while some guidelines discourage screening for women over 74.
“The fact that breast cancer mortality rates have stopped declining for women over age 74 is an alarming new trend,” Monticciolo said. “This is in addition to women under age 40 no longer seeing mortality rates decline from breast cancer. These groups are exactly those discouraged from breast cancer screening by some U.S. guidelines.”
The study, Recent Trends in Breast Cancer Mortality Rates for U.S. Women by Age and Race/Ethnicity,
can be accessed here.
