Plus, there simply aren't that many radiologists to go around.

"While the total pool of medical graduates [in India] has almost doubled in the last two decades, the number of radiologists educated at an international standard remains quite small," the authors said.


India has around 5,500 rads out of a population of 1.15 billion, according to numbers cited from the Indian Radiology & Imaging Association. But the American College of Radiology says there are around 27,000 rads in America, out of a population of only 310 million.

The number of radiologists in India is not growing terribly fast, either. The authors estimate there are only 256 accredited new radiologists minted a year, minus retirees and migrants. The United States produces 500 new rads per year.

And of course, for the market to take off, U.S. regulations would have to change. Currently, U.S. regulations restrict most diagnostic reads to U.S.-trained and board-certified radiologists, of which there is an extremely limited pool in India. One firm profiled in the paper that offered "wet" reads to U.S. hospitals by Indian-trained doctors did not fare well, as hospitals could risk losing malpractice insurance if they contract with non-U.S.-trained doctors, the authors said.

However, this doesn't mean there's no role for outsourced radiologists. The authors said that Singapore has been experimenting with having X-rays interpreted by outsourced foreign radiologists but keeping more complex CT and MRI scans read in-country.

The real threat could also be closer to home, the economists said, as computer software -- currently only available as a diagnostic adjunct -- becomes more proficient at reading simpler images.

"Even in the globalized world, the biggest disruptions to a profession can still lie in its own back yard," the authors said.

Back to HCB News

More Industry Headlines